I recall an incident quite a few years ago when most of the students in the high school where I taught had a walkout.  Or perhaps we could call it a “walk-in”, since they went to one of the gymnasiums and refused to go to class. It was not a protest against the administration or teachers, in fact it was an action designed to bring attention to their desire to have a cafeteria in the school, mainly done in hopes of attention from the community, municipal council, and school board.

While teachers and The Office were very sympathetic to the purpose, a school can’t run with about five-hundred students in the gymnasium, so eventually the principal called their attention, described how he agreed with the idea, etc., etc., and then formally ordered them to leave and return to classes.

They didn’t go.

It was all very peaceful, but in the gym at the time, I realized how tenuous the hold we have on large groups in society actually was.  Short of opening secret cabinets in The Office and breaking out the rods, livestock prods, and cat-o-nine tails, we weren’t going to get those students out of the gym until they were good and ready (and they took those fun things out of education long ago  ;^).

Governments as large as national and as small as a school administration operate on the notion that most of the people are going to obey the rules almost all the time, that they have been socialized, even civilized into feeling that for some reason, peace and good government I suppose, they should obey instructions from “law enforcers”.

Egypt at the moment is experiencing the gymnasium moment.  The government says, “Go back to your homes.  Stop this action.”  The people say, “No.”  Mubarak says, “I will step down in September.”  The people say, “No.”

Although there was instability in Egypt fermenting for some time, it seems natural that the recent overthrowing of the ruling government in Tunisia was the catalyst.  And the trouble is spreading.  People are protesting in Yemen, to this point peacefully.  There are protests growing in the Sudan, in Jordan, in Syria.  In all of these situations there has been a ruling government, often acting basically as dictatorship or a monarchy, that had notions of staying in office forever.

“No,” say the people.  “We will not leave the gym.  If we leave, once this has started, you will quietly hunt down those you feel are our leaders, they will disappear, and you will never leave.  We know your methods.”

While we have the luxury, as in most situations, of watching the drama unfold on television news, certainly a lot of governments, particularly in the western world, are watching with growing concern.  Canada called parliament back two days ago for an emergency debate on the situation in Egypt.  I read a few of the postings on this announcement on the CBC News website.  There were comments like, “Oh, I bet that makes the Egyptians feel better!” and, “Why doesn’t the government have a debate about Canada?”  I don’t think the people were feeling that the babble in the Commons was going to make the world news.

I am surprised that the US government has been coming out strongly the last couple of days in favour of Mubarak stepping down, asap.  I suppose they feel the present situation could lead to full civil war, and make things more unstable than even a temporary vacuum in government.  The Egyptian army has been sitting on the fence so far, but is likely to turn strongly to whichever side they feel is winning, and escalate the violence at that point.  Their fence-sitting now is more a worry about who might be their masters when this trouble ends.

I’m sure the US has a lot of concern.  Prime in the minds of the Americans in dealing with mid-east tensions are two things:  Oil and Israel.  I would be hard-pressed to give a relative strength between the two of them in the mind of American foreign policy.  Egypt in the past has been, if not an ally of the US, and if certainly not a buddy of Israel, at least not troublesome in recent times, which in the mid-east is often the best the US can hope for.  I suspect most of the tanks and armoured vehicles roaming through the protestors on Cairo streets have “Made in America” decals on their bottoms, but that is true of many of the countries of the world.  The US is the world’s leading seller of arms, too often to questionable regimes where it comes back to haunt them.

One concern in the minds of western governments is that these nations rattling sabres are Islamic.  There is a group in the present Egyptian struggle that would like to see the struggle ending with Egypt becoming an Islamic state, with all the bells and whistles like Sharia law.  I don’t think it’s too likely in Egypt, as the nation is more westernized than many Arab countries, and the more radical Muslims seem to be in a minority.  It is a possibility in countries like Yemen where religion has been more of a part of government, and where various Islamic factions have clashed in the past.

How far this domino effect will carry is anyone’s guess.  People eventually become fed up with governments that pull any trick they can to stay in power forever, that are unresponsive to the people, that seem to always have a hidden agenda for eliminating their enemies and having their way with the nation.

We march on Harper on Monday.  Start Tweeting now.  ;^)