We hope Harper is going to actually announce it at some point, but since all parties have started the campaign ball rolling, it seems obvious now to Canadians that we will be at the polls again about October 14th. I anticipate our being in Edmonton at that time, so my wife and I will see what the business of “advance polls” is all about.

In the States, where it seems to have been a land of constant campaigning for the last two years, finally they are down to actual party against party electioneering, since the Democrats have settled on Obama. Whether there will be any knives in the back of Obama, courtesy of the Clinton camp remains to be seen. Hillary might see a win for her in 2012 to be easier against an older McCain looking for a second term (with Obama faded from the picture) than against a possibly successful Obama.

So it’s fall elections all around. I’ve never been one to hold back on predictions on these things, though I conveniently forget what my accuracy record has been. On occasion I do recall making the comment, “I never saw that coming!”

The American election is more difficult to call; like many elections it might surprise us all with a strong swing. If there is a strong swing, I suspect it will be in the Obama direction. It depends on the courage of the American people to try something new.

While he takes great and careful pains to separate himself from George W. Bush, it has to be remembered that John McCain is a Republican, and while he as a person might be different, he’s rolling in with the same Republican troops that supported Bush in the first place. Claims that “electing McCain is giving George Bush a third term” are certainly unfair, but in the political spectrum, backed by the Republican machine, McCain will be at best a softer, gentler, and hopefully less lunatic George W. Bush. That might be just what the people want.

While as I grow older each year I attempt to support older people and their capabilities, certainly people are aware that John McCain will be the oldest president ever to assume office, at 72. While I’m sure he’s capable at that age, the thought goes to when he might seek his second term, at 76, and when he might be in his final year, at 80 years of age. Ronald Reagan was previously the oldest president, at almost 70 when he took office, but was (it was later admitted) into dementia near the end of his reign… not that this is a certainty at that age (gee, I hope not).

Americans have shown a leaning toward Republican presidents for the last while. Over the last almost 40 years, Democrats have held the presidency for only twelve years—four years of Jimmy Carter, which was certainly kinder, gentler, but not regarded as significant, and eight years of Bill Clinton, which had it’s own excitement that probably overshadowed how good he was at the job. Most election references to past Democrats seem to reach back over 50 years to Kennedy, as Obama supporters drop hints of any continuing Democrat legacy.

Obama is something new, certainly talking the talk of a new direction, if he can walk the walk when faced with the problems and limitations of the office. Will Americans take the risk, or at the last minute back off and go for the moderate change of McCain? It will be interesting to see.

Canada, in my mind, is easier to predict, and I suspect most Canadians are quite aware of the situation. I wouldn’t say that Harper is strongly liked, and in all likelihood the Liberals could unseat him with my cat running as leader— however, perhaps unfortunately, they will not do it with Stephane Dion and the “Green Shift” being stumbled into their faces. Dion, however intelligent and well-meaning, does not bring to mind a fairly critical aspect of being leader: leadership. In fact most of the time he seems rather confused and uncomfortable, sort of like the nerd your sister took to the prom out of sympathy.

The Green Shift has too many unknowns, too many questions unanswered for Canadians to take a chance on it. While Dion’s announcements over the last few days of changes for farmers, loggers, etc. might indicate it could be workable, it also indicates that the Liberals themselves don’t really have it right yet. No doubt in this time of climate change something like the Green Shift is what we need, but people who are not fully certain they are ill are not likely to go for what could be bitter medicine. Our perceived illnesses are high gas and heating oil prices, and high living cost, and in all likelihood the Green Shift will make them higher. Vote for that?

There are many disturbing concepts in the Green Shift, but the most disturbing to me is the idea that we will see higher costs for heating, driving, and commodities, but that the savings on income tax will off-set that. But how about the really poor who don’t pay income tax? You can’t get back what you don’t pay in.

Faced with a Harper who is not universally liked, and a Dion that people would prefer to avoid as Prime Minister of our great nation, in all likelihood we will see another minority Conservative government, and be back to square one.

It will lead to eventual change, however, as the Harper government moves into a few years of more difficult economic times, and the Liberals elect a replacement leader who might have the capability to front them in the next election and win it.

After the excitement of the Olympics, the contests continue, but I’m not sure if McCain, Obama, Harper, and Dion are the faces that we will circle the television to see.

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